AI Kills Tech

Starting Caution

A growing part of what you now read on the internet reflects LLM content.

Expect this to continue.

I wrote this article from interactions with people that I know. Some of these people I've known since grade school while I met others as I worked. All of these stories reflect real people who I've interacted with through physical means.

None of these interactions involve any type of digital communication. I add this point because I've actually had a small percent of my friends actually attempt to use LLMs in responses. If you've seen this as well, then you know how obvious it looks. However, we're actually seeing people attempt to replace communicating with friend by using LLMs and other AI tools. I also expect some people to do this, while others recognize what this indicates about people.

For the sake of this article, note that I cannot rely on digital communication anymore as reflective of reality. This will help you as the reader understand why I do not include digital communication with friends as a source.

Monetary Data Reference

All monetary figures below this ("dollar", "gold", etc) reflect values in 2013. Because the dollar's purchasing power fluctuates significantly over time, I may use gold as a numeraire for some dollar figures. This helps readers compare the current timeframe to the previous timeframe.

Gold's average price in 2014 was $1,410.00 per troy ounce.

The Current Tech Field

You're not getting a job right now in your field. You're also seeing hundreds, and in some cases, thousands of people applying for the same job.

A recent example of this: an entry level position in the tech field got over 4,800 applications in two days. The company terminated the position due to overwhelming demand. In speaking with one of the leaders at the company at our weekly leadership lunch, he mentioned the breakdown of applications: 30% of the applications were entry-level applicants. Only 10% were mid-level applicants. The remaining (60%) were distributed across senior-level applicants and directors.

At first glance, he thought this pattern indicated automation. As he dug into a few of these applications he randomly selected, he uncovered that many of the senior-level and directors felt so desperate for a job, they were applying for anything.

Welcome to the new job market for you and your tech friends.

You probably didn't know this was coming. Some of my friends did.

In 2023, I warned many of my friends that AI would kill a lot of white collar work with tech being the obvious one. I shared this article from Dr Paul Krugman that was written many years ago. He knew what would eventually happen. In 2023, I predicted the shift from some LLM tools would happen faster than people expected. That's why I cautioned friends and close colleagues.

Guess what happened?

Immediate denial.

If denial sounds familiar, you'll recall that denial makes the first stage of grief. People who tell you that the "market will come back" are engaged in strong denial. Many of these same people denied that LLMs would have any impact. They argued with my point in 2023.

Of my tech friends that I warned in 2023, almost all of them are now unemployed. Over half of them have been unemployed since 2023.

Think about how long they've been without work.

Two of them are now homeless.

(Homeless people with college degrees is becoming an actual thing in the United States. This stuns my close friends who live in countries within the European continent.)

Some of you readers may feel as people lied to you about the tech industry. You may even feel betrayed by educational institutions that sold you a degree, but haven't delivered results. You may also feel foolish for following advice on the internet that turned out to be wrong.

You have every right to feel those emotions. But recognize that these emotions won't help or serve you.

"Recognize reality, especially when you don't like reality" (Paraphrased quote from Charlie Munger in Poor Charlie's Almanack). Keep that quote in mind throughout your life because once you see it, you begin to see it everywhere.

People see a change, but refuse to recognize what that change means. Why? Because they don't like the change and what it means for their reality, so they deny or pretend. In some cases, they escape (entertainment). What you're actually seeing is people who can't recognize the reality in front of them.

If you've done the same, don't feel bad. Rather recognize what you're doing. Also recognize who else is advising or recommending this.

Long before my 2023 caution to friends, I had expressed concern to a room full of bankers. In 2013, two banking companies invited me to an event to speak about Millennials. I had completed several years of research on marketing to Millennials from the perspective of their current financial situation along with how I saw them maturing. These banks needed help because their current marketing approach didn't connect with Millennials. They needed my view, plus they enjoyed that I spoke their banking language.

I started by highlighing the finances of Millennials. Most of the financial figures made sense to the bankers, except average student loan balances of Millennials who sought college. At the time of my study, the average student loan balance for Millennials borrowers stood at $11,000 in 2013 dollars (worth 7.8 troy ounces of gold). Many bankers couldn't understand why Millennials had such high student loan balances.

I decided to show them why Millennials had such high student loan balances.

I asked the room full of bankers how many of them would be proud if their sons became plumbers. None of them raised their hand.

Think about what I just wrote.

Not one banker raised their hand when I asked if they would be proud that their son became a plumber.

How many of those bankers do you think had used running water that day?

I engaged with them further on this point involving other blue collar work. The bankers certainly valued these blue collar skills based on what they used daily (food, electricity, running water, etc). But none of them wanted their sons to work in these fields.

I noted this pattern explained why so many Millennials were rushing into colleges. That demand for college drove up college prices. The demand also oversaturated the market with college degrees.

This pattern of "I use this, but don't want my kids to do this work" also indicates a pattern I've noted with people who give career advice.

I'll highlight a few of these groups that I've noted over the years who give career or professional advice, yet often have misaligned incentives in their advice.

The Major Groups

1. Parents

Before anyone signs up for my career mentorship, I love to ask the following question if they mention that their parents want them to go to college:

"Why do you think your parents want you to go to college?"

Here's an uncomfortable truth about parents and advice: most parents give advice to avoid embarrassment for themselves. I'll share a quick story about this.

My younger sibling became a janitor almost a decade ago. My parents had always viewed my younger sibling as the second coming of Sir Isaac Newton, so his move into janitorial work shocked them. They kept demanding him to get a degree, even if he wanted to continue being a janitor. They couldn't handle him doing janitorial work.

Since my prediction in 2023, my younger brother hasn't experienced any layoff at all. Likewise, he's gotten promoted multiple times, he now leads a team, and he's seen huge increases in his pay. Because he recognizes what janitors need, he's seen other open opportunities that many people don't recognize because you only see these when you do the work.

Did my parent's advice about college age well? No. Some of my younger brother's friends took the advice about tech only to get wiped out by AI. But they have degrees! Some even pursued their education higher and got master's degrees and PhDs!

They're also unemployed.

Worse, the longer they go without work, the less attractive they are for anything.

Parents sometimes give advice to you so that they look good. My parents cringe as they tell people my younger brother is a janitor. Many parents feel the same way about physical labor or blue collar work.

That's the real reason for their advice.

Misaligned incentive: the parent feels concerned about looking to others whereas the actual result is the parent's child getting a good result in their career. As a father myself, "how I look" doesn't matter at all. Whether my children find work that gets them a strong result does matter. This is how parents should think, but many do not.

2. Generic Internet Advice

You may be reading this because you used social media to ask a question to people who don't know you.

Here's why the answers to you won't age well:

a. Everyone can read the advice that you're getting. You're helping reset the average. This is extremely poor critical thought.

b. The answers to you now frequently feed AI tools like LLMs. In some cases, these tools only economically make sense when they replace you. Most people have not recognized this uncomfortable truth (see the above warning quote). When you consider it, you start to realize the growing cost of free internet advice.

c. Internet advice in general has aged poorly. What happened to the learn-to-code bros? That became the new average and those people have lost big. People frequently miss this pattern: internet advice reflects what worked, not what is working or what will work. That's a big danger.

d. Who posts multiple times per day? Who gives free advice constantly? Is any of that sustainable? One peculiar pattern of most people is that they don't recognize the pattern of a fool. Remember that prosperity destroys fools, not the wise.

e. Popular advice tends to follow a pattern that leads to poor results over time.

You can keep making this mistake and you'll keep paying the same result. To be fair to people asking internet strangers, they're at least cheaper than the next category of bad advice.

Misaligned incentive: a person giving free advice is often seeking validation from others, not results. The person seeking advice needs results.

3. Universities

As of now (2025), most universities in my jurisdiction do not make money from the job that students get with their degree.

Any institution that takes money from you without you getting a guaranteed return does not share the same incentive as you. Consider this thought experiment: you pay the equivalent of 10 troy ounces of gold and four years of your life to a university. The university does not have to guarantee you any job and does not have to refund your full gold equivalent if you feel unsatisfied with the result.

Is that ethical? Is that an aligned incentive?

The only structure that should be legally allowed in my view is that the college gets some money from the career that you get. Otherwise, the university gets nothing. That approach would align incentives because the university would only make money when you work.

Misaligned incentive: universities in my jurisdiction make money regardless of whether the student gets a job or not. By contrast, most students think that a degree means a direct path to a job.

Let's Compare

Because of how much universities cost in terms of both time and money, let's compare them to my career mentorship program:

Average university program.

• Generally, a bachelor's degree is recommended and takes 4 years, though some ambitious students may finish it in 3 years.

• The cost for this 4-year degree can range, but the average 4-year degree cost in 2025 this exceeds $30,000 in my jurisdiction (this excludes housing costs).

• In my jurisdiction, there is no money back guarantee and there's no guarantee of employment once the student graduates.

My career mentorship program.

• I limit my mentorship by vetting people I may work with ahead of time. I start with a free exercise and if people do that, we have an initial discussion at no cost reviewing what they learned. Notice how my initial discussion is no cost to see if they will be right for the program. This no cost discussion also benefits the people who do the exercise whether they choose to enroll in my program or not.

• With the exception of people who want further mentorship, I work with people for 3 months at a 2025 cost of $1,000 per month ($3,000 total).

• I do not use a generic template to mentor with people. The initial exercise and further mentorship discussions help me tailor the program to the person's strengths so that they get the most out of it. In other words, I avoid cookie cutter templates because people are individuals, not templates.

• What happens if the person hasn't gotten a job in 3 months? Then I work with them until they do.

I've had a few people continue to mentor with me. That was not required, but they saw value in continuing to learn.

Most important with my program: I do not work with most people. Part of this involves filtering out people who I know won't do the work. But the other part involves recognizing the current market. If too many people in a particular path or field need help, it doesn't serve anyone to help. Colleges should have done this years ago when too many students were enrolling. They should have stopped allowing new enrollees. But that would have cost them money! You can see the problem.

This is why my program differs. I started career mentorship as I helped a few friends land great jobs. But I also saw that the great strength in this field comes from professional leadership and work. In other words, the worst career mentor to work with doesn't have a job and does this full time. That's most of my competition.

Full Circle To the Death of Tech

Most reading this are probably still in denial. It takes an extremely strong person to recognize this pattern in themselves. Most will never do this.

If you've made it this far and you're strong enough to handle reality, then you know tech is not returning. You realize that 100% of the investment you've made in this has been lost forever.

The pain that you feel will be the incentive to do things differently. When the cost of not changing exceeds the cost of changing, then you change. The pain you feel now will be the driving force behind your change.

For the rest of you that deny, continue. Like many of my unemployed friends who keep hoping, that's all you'll have left.